The chance of a La Nina in 2016 has increased in recent weeks, with climate models indicating a 50 percent possibility of the weather event emerging this year, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) says.

The potential emergence of a La Nina comes as the strongest El Nino in nearly 20 years – which has been linked to serious crop damage, forest fires and flash floods – begins to subside.

La Nina is the opposite of the El Nino weather event that is characterized by warmer waters in the tropical Pacific. La Nina is often, but not always, associated with above-average winter-spring rainfall over northern, central and eastern Australia.

“While the 2015–16 El Nino remains at weak to moderate levels, recent changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, combined with current climate model outlooks, suggest the likelihood of La Niña in 2016 has increased to around 50 percent,” the BOM said.

The bureau had previously indicated that a strong El Nino weather pattern would likely end in the second quarter of 2016 and a La Nina could follow. Analysts say a La Nina could impact the supply of global grains, particularly wheat and corn – where the United States is the largest exporter of both crops. The weather event is associated with lower-than-average rainfalls over North America.

While global supplies are ample as of now, the only thing that could change that “would be a possible La Nina”, said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist, National Australia Bank.

Benchmark wheat prices fell to a more than five-year low last month and corn prices hit a 9-and-a-half-month low amid large world supplies.

– with Reuters